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2006 Crystal Ball
An expert guy predictions for 2006
MICROSOFT / ECONOMY: Like last year, MS is going to barrel along just fine. The special European version without Media Player will fall flat on its face, very few people will insist on buying it. You may well "lose" another favorive IT-vendor, as the '05 merger frenzy keeps on going in 2006. The economy for '06 is expected to be growing more than 3% (housing bubble will cool) strong, but expect IT budgets to decrease slightly in 2006. However security software will climb at double digit rates, driven by more and more sophisticated security threats by financially motivated hackers, Government regulation and spending, and the protection of consumer identity and data.
OPERATING SYSTEMS: Windows Vista will actually be early! They claim late 2006 but I suspect Redmond is sandbagging it this time. The code they recently released looks very good. However, expect Patch Tuesdays to be -very- busy the first few months after the release. And regarding WinFS, the new file system, that's going to be '07. Linux will continue to go great guns and gobble up all legacy Unix, and I still do not see a lot of Linux on the desktop for 2006 except for "no-budget" organizations.
NETWORKING: Wi-MAX will be the hot ticket in 2006, but like last year's predictions, old-fashioned wired networks will grow both faster and larger in 2006. Broadband penetration will continue to grow in the US, but will continue to lag compared to other (way) more advanced countries. By 2010, Gartner expects 30 percent of U.S. homes will be using only cellular or Internet telephony. Wi-Fi mesh-nets in urban areas will spread so fast that even wildfires can't keep up.
(V)BLOGS: Over half of the blog networks will disappear in '06. Some 5 or 10 big ones will survive. BlogAds will will proliferate rapidly in the immediate 12 months. However, 2006 will be the year that video on the web will explode with VLOGS being the leader, as all the ingredients are now in place.
SECURITY: Under pressure from Google, Microsoft has rolled out it's 'live' concept for consumers. It's a bit of a clunker, and will take them through 2006 to get it somewhat in order, so do not expect this puppy until 2007. When it finally arrives it will be a commercial disaster, as subscriptions to fix something that should be good to begin with is a really stupid idea. Your organization will be forced to continue pro-active "defense-in-depth". Rootkits will be a major center of attention, but do not forget macro viruses that will spread via mobile devices. The push to use biometric ID mechanisms will increase. Someone will get caught using prosthetic biometric devices to counterfeit another person's identify, leading to speculation about how many uses of prosthetic biometric devices have not been caught. At least one popular Open Source app will be successfully massively attacked by hackers, likely Firefox.
GAMING: Traditional gaming company business models will come under pressure from a free and wildly popular Google online game that will be supported by advertising. Another Gnail in Redmond's coffin. The XBOX 360 will be a major hit but stay in short supply for the first half of the year forcing game companies to lay off people. The hacking community will have Linux running on the 360 in no time, and will create a distributed supercomputing cluster using the new XBOX hardware. Gaming will achieve more respect and market acceptance in '06.
MESSAGING SECURITY: The volume of SPAM will level off to 70% of total email traffic. Attachments of malware to email will increase big time in 2006, and the anti-spam laws will continue to be ineffective. IE7 will help make RSS explode if it ever ships. Email borne "spear phishing" attacks will be the bane of many companies and cause even more security debacles than '05.
SPYWARE: Turned out to be the #1 headache of IT in 2005 as predicted. Well over 80% of sites will have an antispyware solution in place by the end of 2006. Someone will notice that the BIOS updates for PC's from Lenovo actually install spyware that sends information back to the company in China. (It's not paranoia if it is true) [grin]
"WILD-ASS GUESSES":
? Sunbelt Software will be slashdotted at least 6 times in 2006
? There will be a new product called Google Money, think Paypal with a twist, but Google's stock price will take it's first big hit (-20%)
? Microsoft will decide Windows Live isn't worth it after all and kill the baby.
? "Web 2.0" will be exposed for the marketing buzzword sham it is.
? A Korean hardware company will come out with a laptop sporting a USB airbag
? Companies to be bought in '06: TIVO, AOL, and LinkedIn whether by Yahoo, Google or Microsoft. Eek.
? Ebay will force people to inform the IRS & Inland Revenue of all sales made. EEEK.
? 17 named storms expected in 2006; East Coast at twice the average risk; EEEEEEEK!
? Continued high oil prices and massive VC investments will force one major new clean technology into the foreground that will be taken up worldwide. wOOt!
? Apple continues to crank out next-gen iPods and the latest one will have a satellite radio receiver, a PDA, a phone and GPS-capability. I want one! Prices for iTunes songs will start varying wildly based on popularity, and some one will find a way to sell them to other consumers.
And one for the road. Blake Ross predicted: Due to a glitch in Windows Vista, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will mix up his notes at PDC '06 and declare: "Developers, developers, developers... We're going to f*%ing bury those guys!" Nineteen will leave on stretchers with furniture-related injuries." Hee hee.
Have a great 2006 !
Thanks for material to WServerNews readers Keith Hare, Jonathan Cook, Daniel Cooke, Russell Seeney, Johan van Zyl, Tom Trottier, Tim Payne, and last but not least: Google.
MICROSOFT / ECONOMY: Like last year, MS is going to barrel along just fine. The special European version without Media Player will fall flat on its face, very few people will insist on buying it. You may well "lose" another favorive IT-vendor, as the '05 merger frenzy keeps on going in 2006. The economy for '06 is expected to be growing more than 3% (housing bubble will cool) strong, but expect IT budgets to decrease slightly in 2006. However security software will climb at double digit rates, driven by more and more sophisticated security threats by financially motivated hackers, Government regulation and spending, and the protection of consumer identity and data.
OPERATING SYSTEMS: Windows Vista will actually be early! They claim late 2006 but I suspect Redmond is sandbagging it this time. The code they recently released looks very good. However, expect Patch Tuesdays to be -very- busy the first few months after the release. And regarding WinFS, the new file system, that's going to be '07. Linux will continue to go great guns and gobble up all legacy Unix, and I still do not see a lot of Linux on the desktop for 2006 except for "no-budget" organizations.
NETWORKING: Wi-MAX will be the hot ticket in 2006, but like last year's predictions, old-fashioned wired networks will grow both faster and larger in 2006. Broadband penetration will continue to grow in the US, but will continue to lag compared to other (way) more advanced countries. By 2010, Gartner expects 30 percent of U.S. homes will be using only cellular or Internet telephony. Wi-Fi mesh-nets in urban areas will spread so fast that even wildfires can't keep up.
(V)BLOGS: Over half of the blog networks will disappear in '06. Some 5 or 10 big ones will survive. BlogAds will will proliferate rapidly in the immediate 12 months. However, 2006 will be the year that video on the web will explode with VLOGS being the leader, as all the ingredients are now in place.
SECURITY: Under pressure from Google, Microsoft has rolled out it's 'live' concept for consumers. It's a bit of a clunker, and will take them through 2006 to get it somewhat in order, so do not expect this puppy until 2007. When it finally arrives it will be a commercial disaster, as subscriptions to fix something that should be good to begin with is a really stupid idea. Your organization will be forced to continue pro-active "defense-in-depth". Rootkits will be a major center of attention, but do not forget macro viruses that will spread via mobile devices. The push to use biometric ID mechanisms will increase. Someone will get caught using prosthetic biometric devices to counterfeit another person's identify, leading to speculation about how many uses of prosthetic biometric devices have not been caught. At least one popular Open Source app will be successfully massively attacked by hackers, likely Firefox.
GAMING: Traditional gaming company business models will come under pressure from a free and wildly popular Google online game that will be supported by advertising. Another Gnail in Redmond's coffin. The XBOX 360 will be a major hit but stay in short supply for the first half of the year forcing game companies to lay off people. The hacking community will have Linux running on the 360 in no time, and will create a distributed supercomputing cluster using the new XBOX hardware. Gaming will achieve more respect and market acceptance in '06.
MESSAGING SECURITY: The volume of SPAM will level off to 70% of total email traffic. Attachments of malware to email will increase big time in 2006, and the anti-spam laws will continue to be ineffective. IE7 will help make RSS explode if it ever ships. Email borne "spear phishing" attacks will be the bane of many companies and cause even more security debacles than '05.
SPYWARE: Turned out to be the #1 headache of IT in 2005 as predicted. Well over 80% of sites will have an antispyware solution in place by the end of 2006. Someone will notice that the BIOS updates for PC's from Lenovo actually install spyware that sends information back to the company in China. (It's not paranoia if it is true) [grin]
"WILD-ASS GUESSES":
? Sunbelt Software will be slashdotted at least 6 times in 2006
? There will be a new product called Google Money, think Paypal with a twist, but Google's stock price will take it's first big hit (-20%)
? Microsoft will decide Windows Live isn't worth it after all and kill the baby.
? "Web 2.0" will be exposed for the marketing buzzword sham it is.
? A Korean hardware company will come out with a laptop sporting a USB airbag
? Companies to be bought in '06: TIVO, AOL, and LinkedIn whether by Yahoo, Google or Microsoft. Eek.
? Ebay will force people to inform the IRS & Inland Revenue of all sales made. EEEK.
? 17 named storms expected in 2006; East Coast at twice the average risk; EEEEEEEK!
? Continued high oil prices and massive VC investments will force one major new clean technology into the foreground that will be taken up worldwide. wOOt!
? Apple continues to crank out next-gen iPods and the latest one will have a satellite radio receiver, a PDA, a phone and GPS-capability. I want one! Prices for iTunes songs will start varying wildly based on popularity, and some one will find a way to sell them to other consumers.
And one for the road. Blake Ross predicted: Due to a glitch in Windows Vista, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will mix up his notes at PDC '06 and declare: "Developers, developers, developers... We're going to f*%ing bury those guys!" Nineteen will leave on stretchers with furniture-related injuries." Hee hee.
Have a great 2006 !
Thanks for material to WServerNews readers Keith Hare, Jonathan Cook, Daniel Cooke, Russell Seeney, Johan van Zyl, Tom Trottier, Tim Payne, and last but not least: Google.
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