1999 War Games Foreshadow Iraq Problems

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • toasty
    Sir Toastiness
    • Jun 2004
    • 6585

    1999 War Games Foreshadow Iraq Problems

    Resist the temptation to discard this outright just because it's from the Post. Anyone still think Rumsfeld deserves to keep his job?

    WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.
    Some conclusions:

    The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:

    _"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."

    _"Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic _ especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."

    _"Iran's anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."

    _"The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development."

    _"Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."

    _"A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."
  • KinKyJ
    Platinum Poser
    • Jun 2004
    • 13438

    #2
    Re: 1999 War Games Foreshadow Iraq Problems

    tar & feathers imo

    Comment

    Working...