If we leave Iraq...

[superdave]

what would happen?

The Democratic talking points appear to be American troops cause the unrest and when the occupation ends then we'll see Iraq calm down and root out Al-Qaeda.

The Republican and Presidential talking points are that it'll be much worse if we leave. And the terrorists will come after us in our own country. Fight them over there instead of over here.

Who's right or is there something both parties are missing?

[Lorn]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

Remember that before US troops were there Sadam was there. He was a brutal dictator who didn't allow any shit to get out of hand. If we leave, no heavy handed dictator would be there. So my guess is the unrest would only grow until someone comes out on top.

[Miroslav]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

The Democrats are wrong. I think it takes an exceptional kind of moron to believe that when the US leaves everything will become a happy tea party over there.

The Republicans are partly right. When the US troops leave, there will be a huge fucking mess left behind. And continued instability will likely breed continued violence and misery. Terrorists and other unsavory characters may well benefit in the aftermath. The only thing that the Republicans leave out is that there is no way to avoid it now and they're the damn people who got us into this miserable mess in the first place.

[subterFUSE]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

Iran will move in and take over Iraq.

They will control the largest oil supplies on the globe, which will give them new bargaining power with the global community. They can control the oil markets, and essentially hold the world hostage to their demands.

They will assure their quest for the nuclear weapon. This will doom Israel.

Israel will be forced to attack the Iranian nuclear sites to prevent them from finishing their nukes. This will be an act of war, and much of the muslim world will be stirred up into this conflict.

The USA will be forced to defend Israel against enemies from nearly every direction. So we will get dragged into another violent conflict.

[Kobe]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

The only thing that the Republicans leave out is that there is no way to avoid it now and they're the damn people who got us into this miserable mess in the first place.

That is a key point. How much of this (using subterFUSE's post as an example) are we preventing by staying? How long would we have to stay to keep it that way? Forever?

This has already cost 3/4's of a trillion dollars and lasted longer than our involvement in WWII. If we indeed need to permanently prevent Iran from moving into Iraq, we really need to take an honest look at how capable we are of doing that. How many tours of duty do our reservists need to do?

Gah, the more I think about this the more I see how fucked we are.

[Lorn]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

Gah, the more I think about this the more I see how fucked we are.

Yup. The whole world is fucked.

[toasty]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

what would happen?

The Democratic talking points appear to be American troops cause the unrest and when the occupation ends then we'll see Iraq calm down and root out Al-Qaeda.

The Republican and Presidential talking points are that it'll be much worse if we leave. And the terrorists will come after us in our own country. Fight them over there instead of over here.

Who's right or is there something both parties are missing?

They are both partially right and partially wrong, IMO. I think if we leave, it will be followed by a bloody civil war resulting in the deaths of countless people. Of course, that's happening anyway, so I'm not sure that can be avoided at this point.

One thing that will happen if we leave -- these folks will be forced to figure this problem out, whether through military, diplomatic, or even geo-political means. I don't think US troops are the source of the unrest, but their presence does take some of the pressure off of the Iraqis to try to find a solution. I do think that US troops being there pushes an eventual resolution into the future, partially because I think that the ultimate solution is to partition the country -- US troops, however, simply provide military support, which gets in the way of that sort of geo-political solution.

I have the feeling that the only reason we're still there is either because Bush is too pigheaded to realize that he can't be the solution, or because he so desperately wants to avoid the perception of failure, he's willing to endure the slow burn on our resources to save face. I really hope it's not the latter, but it wouldn't surprise me.

At the end of the day, we have succeeded in our goal of removing Saddam from power and liberating the Iraqi people. We have also unleashed a centuries-old conflict that was only being held in check by Saddam's oppressive rule and that will continue to result in significant bloodshed until the Iraqis realize that the solution is not a military one. Getting our troops out of there is one way to push them towards that realization.

There are no easy answers, that's for sure. No matter what we do, many, many more people are going to die. We ultimately need to make a determination as to whether us being there leads the Iraqis closer to resolving this conflict. I don't see that we do anymore.

I dunno, though. It's an extremely complex problem that belies talking points. What's worse is that we've got a guy in charge that is not sophisticated enough to be up to the task before him.

My. $.02 as of this moment. I reserve the right to change my mind on this, though, because on the question of whether we stay or go, I change it all the time. It's a really brutally tough situation.

[Kobe]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

Excellent summary, Toasty

[Bululu]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

If you leave Iraq you loose the Oil , so better stay there .

[subterFUSE]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

If you leave Iraq you loose the Oil , so better stay there .

No shit.... we better not lose the oil.

Without access to oil, the world would descend into complete anarchy. Hundreds of millions, if not billions of people would die.

[Lorn]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

MS would survive!

[apollo_1444]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

If we leave Iraq...

like that'll happen

[thesightless]

Re: If we leave Iraq...

.I have the feeling that the only reason we're still there is either because Bush is too pigheaded to realize that he can't be the solution, or because he so desperately wants to avoid the perception of failure, he's willing to endure the slow burn on our resources to save face. I really hope it's not the latter, but it wouldn't surprise me.

At the end of the day, we have succeeded in our goal of removing Saddam from power and liberating the Iraqi people. We have also unleashed a centuries-old conflict that was only being held in check by Saddam's oppressive rule and that will continue to result in significant bloodshed until the Iraqis realize that the solution is not a military one. Getting our troops out of there is one way to push them towards that realization.

guy who is a moron when it comes to a war, plus a society who has been at war with itself or anyone in its way since it began, equals an idiot sending people into a toilet. bush will be gone in a few years, but the middle east will continue its 1500 year war and running........ the whole region needs a different take, we should just stop sending money and food to them, cut them off from everything and say oil for food is about to take on a whole new meaning.
10/10 james. stress the highlighted areas.