Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

[toasty]

I had always kinda assumed that the presidential race would be over as of February 6, but does anyone else get the vibe that, at least on the Democratic side, Super Tuesday or whatever the hell you want to call it may leave things relatively unsettled? It is mathematically impossible for Hillary or Obama to win the nomination on February 5, and with the way things are shaping up, it looks likely that they'll each take some states and things will be relatively close everywhere (with the exception of NY and Illinois). Since the Dems do proportional distribution of delegates, both will take a lot of delegates and we'll end up kinda right where we are now.

With Edwards out, a brokered convention is less likely. Will be interesting, regardless.

[Jenks]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

What happens if they both stay this close the entire time?? I'm sure eventually one or the other will pull away, but curious what would happen if it stayed neck and neck.

[Huggie Smiles]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

There is not enough delegate votes available for a majority on soopah doopah tuesday? even if one person wins the lot? is that correct?

[toasty]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

What happens if they both stay this close the entire time?? I'm sure eventually one or the other will pull away, but curious what would happen if it stayed neck and neck.

You need a simple (pretty sure about that) majority of delegates to win the nomination, which, for the Dems this year is 2025. Because Edwards has taken 26 delegates and because super delegates, which do not have to follow the votes of their state, can go either way up until the convention, it's theoretically possible that at the end of it all, they are both close to 2025 but not over the hump. Then they have a brokered convention, where the party effectively determines the nomination through horse-trading and deal-making. Used to happen at the time, but hasn't happened on either side in 50-60 years.

Thankfully, Edwards doesn't have so many delegates that that would actually be likely this year. He can assign those delegates, though, giving him a fair amount of clout.

It's looking more and more like we'll just continue to go forward with primaries unless someone really scores a knockout blow on Tuesday -- and maybe some of those states with late primaries will have theirs actually matter for a change.

Notwithstanding Hillary's "win" in Florida the other night, Obama's got great momentum right now. Did you see that the dude raised $32M in January. He's also closed the gap in California in the most recent poll to 3 points. Unless he unexpectedly gets clobbered on Feb. 5, I feel real good about his chances going forward, as he'll be able to focus his attention in on just a couple of states at a time...

[toasty]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

There is not enough delegate votes available for a majority on soopah doopah tuesday? even if one person wins the lot? is that correct?

Yes, that is correct...

[toasty]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

Well, I'll tell you what, this is shaping up to be a really, really interesting contest, at least on the Democratic side. After months of holding commanding leads nationwide and in the Feb. 5 primary states, Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama is rapidly evaporating -- the RCP average right now only has her up by 2.5 and he's up or tied in 3 of the last 5 taken, which, when you consider that she held 30 point leads nationally in the not-too-distant past, is remarkable. With Edwards recently dropping out and things changing so rapidly, old polling data is going to be really unreliable, making tomorrow's contest totally unpredictable. The one thing that is clear is that Obama is picking up momentum.

How about Maria Shriver breaking from Ah-nold to not just side with Obama, but to actively campaign for the dude along with Oprah and Caroline Kennedy? I don't typically put a lot of stock in endorsements and the like, but that was surprising enough that I actually took notice. Looking like California may break for Obama now, too, with 4 of the last 6 polls going for him and her holding only a .6% edge in the RCP average there.

Good stuff...

[AntonyM]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

Obama is making this race interesting at least
he has that populist power in his speeches
and apparently it is starting to take root which
should be a big concern to the Clinton campaign.
It would make politics a bit more fun again to see
Obama make a presidential run especially again McCain
who represents all that needs to be changed in the US

[Huggie Smiles]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

todays the day! who has voted yet?

[toasty]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

I proudly placed my vote for Obama first thing this morning.

[tiddles]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

sent my absentee vote for Obama two weeks ago

[toasty]

Re: Super/Tsunami/Mega/Big Ass Tuesday

sent my absentee vote for Obama two weeks ago

I think the absentee ballot could be a real X factor in this race, particularly in states like California where a ton of ballots are expected to be cast that way. A lot has happened in the past couple of weeks and Obama has picked up a lot of momentum, but that doesn't make a bit of difference for those that have already cast their ballots. What about all of those people that cast absentee ballots for Edwards?