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Well, we're well into the primary season now -- anyone have any thoughts at this point?
I've noticed that since New Hampshire, the pundits have done a lot more observing and a lot less predicting. National Journal, which dutifully offered predictions and rankings starting about this time last year, hasn't updated their predictions since right after New Hampshire:
Definite trend -- there are still folks out there offering their predictions on what will happen, but they tend to be heavily qualified opinions, and are greatly outnumbered by articles who ultimately conclude, "Well, it will be interesting to see how this ultimately turns out."
On a different note, I'm curious to see if Obama can turn these wins and momentum into a knockout blow. There's a very good chance that Clinton could lose every remaining contest in February. Traditional wisdom would suggest that it will be impossible for a candidate to weather that and still do well in subsequent contests in Texas, Ohio & Pennsylvania, but very little has followed traditional wisdom this cycle. Every time Clinton seems to be on the ropes, she seems to capitalize on her role as underdog and turn it into a win. Very frustrating.
The good news, from my standpoint, is that as this becomes more and more a race for delegates, Obama continuing to win -- and doing so in wide margins -- should ensure that he has a delegate lead, including superdelegates, by the time Ohio and Texas roll around. Even if she wins those contests, he ought to be close enough that they more or less split delegates, preserving his lead. Who knows, though -- long ways from over...
I've noticed that since New Hampshire, the pundits have done a lot more observing and a lot less predicting. National Journal, which dutifully offered predictions and rankings starting about this time last year, hasn't updated their predictions since right after New Hampshire:
Definite trend -- there are still folks out there offering their predictions on what will happen, but they tend to be heavily qualified opinions, and are greatly outnumbered by articles who ultimately conclude, "Well, it will be interesting to see how this ultimately turns out."
On a different note, I'm curious to see if Obama can turn these wins and momentum into a knockout blow. There's a very good chance that Clinton could lose every remaining contest in February. Traditional wisdom would suggest that it will be impossible for a candidate to weather that and still do well in subsequent contests in Texas, Ohio & Pennsylvania, but very little has followed traditional wisdom this cycle. Every time Clinton seems to be on the ropes, she seems to capitalize on her role as underdog and turn it into a win. Very frustrating.
The good news, from my standpoint, is that as this becomes more and more a race for delegates, Obama continuing to win -- and doing so in wide margins -- should ensure that he has a delegate lead, including superdelegates, by the time Ohio and Texas roll around. Even if she wins those contests, he ought to be close enough that they more or less split delegates, preserving his lead. Who knows, though -- long ways from over...
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