IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[Miroslav]

Now this, to me, is what we should really be concerned about, not oil execs or speculators or whether Hillary is really a man.

Energy Watchdog Warns
Of Oil-Production Crunch

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

For several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. Now, the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.

No one will know if we're in the peak oil phenomenon until we're looking back on it well after the fact...but if this was to be the case, then we are looking at one of the most important challenges of our lifetimes and we will see some very scary times ahead.

[thesightless]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

i was thinking about thisthe other day in a great conversation with a friend.

as fooked up as this all is..... sadly, but thankfully as well, i think we are positioned to be the last man standing in the oil wars. the US has positioned itself in one way or another to be the one with the upper hand in the end all be all unless someone else randonly discovers a large oil feild.

holding back our own oil discovery and capitol investment in the process, all the while, relying on others. but their is a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of market positioning and demand/supply issues. once the middle eastern oil either dries up or they cut exports for thier own demand, the worldwide demand will shoot up and the last few remaining oils feilds in the world will essentially be in the hands of american companies and allied countries. outside of venzuela and mid east OPEC, brazil, america, peru, and canada will the be the power brokers of the most important commodity.

we will be forced to drill where we protect (enviornmental issues asisde, speaking solely on the issue of economics), the feilds in the mid west, alaska, perma frost in Yukon, are all, and will be, under american influence and semi- control. tossing aside canadian nationalism, canada relies upon american economics very much and i cannot imagine them refusing to drill if the situation dictates them having to out of neccessity.

we eventually have the chance to control the free market supplies in the end all be all. clearly there are other factors that could come into play, but the majority of them are a stretch (another world war, america vs canada in a war, north and south america losing allied status). add in the fact that america can rapidly deploy a large scale construction of a capitol investment of drilling, refining, and processing, we could quickly become the quote un quote power broker of black gold.

[Jenks]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

america vs. canada in a war? dude, you're lost your damn mind.

[88Mariner]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

nuclear power for domestic operations, and the necesity to marginalize oil usage in vehicles. We really should be drilling in the United States, but this makes me wonder why we are not....


...my thought is this: if this peak-oil shit is true, then it would behoove us NOT to drill just yet, but wait until down the road when the Middle East is dry. And then corner the market. hmm!

[Jenks]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

the answer isn't to drill for more oil, it's to invest in alternative energy sources.

[Garrick]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

the answer is to find a happy medium. brazil is self sufficient on oil and alternatives. they don't depend on anyone for energy and they are very conservative the way they use their resources. we should be taking notes.

[Jenks]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

Brazil is also sitting on a shit ton of oil.

Agreed tho, a happy medium is where it's @. It's not just oil consumption for automobiles, it's all the petroleum based products that scare me should we see a decline in production.

[day_for_night]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

america vs. canada in a war? dude, you're lost your damn mind.

we won in 1812. so neener.


and despite all your countires tough talk, no one in their right mind thinks the US can influence us to that extent. you aren't gonna invade, thats just nonsense. iraq is one thing, but invading a peaceful G8 nation is beyond even the US's wildest ambtions. that and we could be a nuclear power anytime we wanted. hell, we also have most the worlds supply of uranium. yay for us.

/end patriotism.


The reason you guys aren't drilling in the states, is there is no oil left to find, with the exception of some exploration in the gulf of mexico. the US hit its own peak oil production in the late 70s and has been on the decline ever since.

The biggest factors influencing where oil will come from in the next 20-30 years are things like enhanced oil recovery, rates of new finds (mainly offshore), and alot of geopolitical stuff that is hard to predict.

The world will be able to produce as much as is needed, at the right price. Fields that were no longer economical at $50 a barrel start looking pretty good when it hits $135 a barrel (as of today). This IEA thing is a bit of scaremongering in my opinion.

[Garrick]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

^ did you really just say neener?

[thesightless]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

america vs. canada in a war? dude, you're lost your damn mind.

are you selectively literate?

clearly there are other factors that could come into play, but the majority of them are a stretch (another world war, america vs canada in a war, north and south america losing allied status)

[Jenks]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

jeff, i wasn't implying that the french, er canadians, wouldn't put up a fight or something, eh.

i was saying, we'd never go to war with canada.

but your knee jerk reaction to bring up 1812 and flex your canadian muscle is pretty funny.

[thesightless]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

The reason you guys aren't drilling in the states, is there is no oil left to find, with the exception of some exploration in the gulf of mexico. the US hit its own peak oil production in the late 70s and has been on the decline ever since.

actually, that is not true. there are oil feilds in the mid west that are protected under enviornmental concerns that have oil. also, there was a recent discovery of an oil feild due south east of the gulf of mexico. add in alaska and the canadian perma frost oil and the north american nations will end up being the last guys standing.

[day_for_night]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

jeff, i wasn't implying that the french, er canadians, wouldn't put up a fight or something, eh.

i was saying, we'd never go to war with canada.

but your knee jerk reaction to bring up 1812 and flex your canadian muscle is pretty funny.

nah it was more to entertain myself. bored at work...

[day_for_night]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

^ did you really just say neener?

i'm mature like that

[day_for_night]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

on a serious note...the wikipedia article on world oil reserves is actually very well written

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

And here is where most of the world's production will come from for the next 20 years...