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Regarding a new poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:
Not saying who should win, nor am I saying that these poll results are going to hold up – just talking about the horserace aspect of the race, and the impact these polls will have on McCain’s campaign.
I had thought that Florida was a pipe dream, and that McCain wouldn’t have to devote a lot of resources to the state. Thing is, this is just one poll and McCain very well may still take the state, but the more resources he has to devote to holding Florida, the fewer resources he’s going to have to compete in other states he has to carry to win, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, etc., all of which currently range between faint blue to pretty darn blue on fivethirtyeight.com. Also, Obama currently has more states that are solidly in his column right now, per RCP.
He’s got about a week to see where things fall after the bounce effect wears off, but if the map looks anything like this at the end of next week, the dude is going to have to reevaluate his strategy some, methinks. If he loses Florida, he’s got a really tough path to the nomination, but even if he holds it, that state is an enormous resource drain and will make it very tough for him to compete in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri that also have multiple large population/media centers.
Early polls don’t matter in terms of what the electorate will ultimately do – but if they force a change of strategy, they can have an impact…
This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.
* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.
Not saying who should win, nor am I saying that these poll results are going to hold up – just talking about the horserace aspect of the race, and the impact these polls will have on McCain’s campaign.
I had thought that Florida was a pipe dream, and that McCain wouldn’t have to devote a lot of resources to the state. Thing is, this is just one poll and McCain very well may still take the state, but the more resources he has to devote to holding Florida, the fewer resources he’s going to have to compete in other states he has to carry to win, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, etc., all of which currently range between faint blue to pretty darn blue on fivethirtyeight.com. Also, Obama currently has more states that are solidly in his column right now, per RCP.
He’s got about a week to see where things fall after the bounce effect wears off, but if the map looks anything like this at the end of next week, the dude is going to have to reevaluate his strategy some, methinks. If he loses Florida, he’s got a really tough path to the nomination, but even if he holds it, that state is an enormous resource drain and will make it very tough for him to compete in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri that also have multiple large population/media centers.
Early polls don’t matter in terms of what the electorate will ultimately do – but if they force a change of strategy, they can have an impact…
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