McCain is Doomed

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  • toasty
    Sir Toastiness
    • Jun 2004
    • 6585

    McCain is Doomed

    Regarding a new poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

    This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

    * Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
    * Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
    * Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.
    In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state.


    Not saying who should win, nor am I saying that these poll results are going to hold up – just talking about the horserace aspect of the race, and the impact these polls will have on McCain’s campaign.

    I had thought that Florida was a pipe dream, and that McCain wouldn’t have to devote a lot of resources to the state. Thing is, this is just one poll and McCain very well may still take the state, but the more resources he has to devote to holding Florida, the fewer resources he’s going to have to compete in other states he has to carry to win, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, etc., all of which currently range between faint blue to pretty darn blue on fivethirtyeight.com. Also, Obama currently has more states that are solidly in his column right now, per RCP.

    He’s got about a week to see where things fall after the bounce effect wears off, but if the map looks anything like this at the end of next week, the dude is going to have to reevaluate his strategy some, methinks. If he loses Florida, he’s got a really tough path to the nomination, but even if he holds it, that state is an enormous resource drain and will make it very tough for him to compete in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri that also have multiple large population/media centers.

    Early polls don’t matter in terms of what the electorate will ultimately do – but if they force a change of strategy, they can have an impact…
  • MJDub
    Are you Kidding me??
    • Jun 2004
    • 2765

    #2
    Re: McCain is Doomed

    Since I'm clearly biased, I was happy to see this poll as well. It isn't too surprising though since McCain has acted like a more senile version of John Kerry so far in this campaign when it comes to so-called "flip-flopping."
    http://www.myspace.com/mjdubmusic

    You can't have manslaughter without laughter.

    "Son," he said without preamble, "never trust a man who doesn't drink because he's probably a self-righteous sort, a man who thinks he knows right from wrong all the time. Some of them are good men, but in the name of goodness, they cause most of the suffering in the world. They're the judges, the meddlers. And, son, never trust a man who drinks but refuses to get drunk. They're usually afraid of something deep down inside, either that they're a coward or a fool or mean and violent. You can't trust a man who's afraid of himself. But sometimes, son, you can trust a man who occasionally kneels before a toilet. The chances are that he is learning something about humility and his natural human foolishness, about how to survive himself. It's damned hard for a man to take himself too seriously when he's heaving his guts into a dirty toilet bowl."

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    • Garrick
      DUDERZ get a life!!!
      • Jun 2004
      • 6764

      #3
      Re: McCain is Doomed

      it is a very long time to election time to think mccain is doomed. people still have a lot to learn about both candidates. MJ you are very biased. Obama flip flops just as well. it is in every politician's nature to do so.
      remember that a few months ago Barack Obama was talking about almost doubling the capital gains tax. he wanted to take it up to 28%. suddenly that changed. apparently some advisors who are smarter than him had a little sit-down, and the idea went away.
      Should I fuck you at that not until the ass, inject then tremendously hard bumschen and to the termination in the eyes yes?

      Comment

      • Cj Tari
        MCast Resident DJ
        • Nov 2004
        • 557

        #4
        Re: McCain is Doomed

        im not that interested on politics, i my self dont really ever vote(yes yes i know i should blah blah, but i dont, i just dont care).

        but im becoming more and more annoyed by how Mcaing is trying to appeal to the younger crowd, just that Saturday Night Live skit and his appearance on the Daily Show, i mean, dude is just trying way too hard, it makes him look dumb.

        and just for the record, theres something about Obama that is just unsettling for me, i mean the dude is a great motivator and some of the things he says are really inspiring, but i dont know, for me its seems like a lot of over hyping going on.


        still if i had to choose between the two, i would go for Obama, just because i think if we go for Mcain its going to be another 4 years of Bush.

        my two cents.
        ..:: listen :: react ::..
        http://www.myspace.com/djcjtari
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        Comment

        • Garrick
          DUDERZ get a life!!!
          • Jun 2004
          • 6764

          #5
          Re: McCain is Doomed

          ^ don't take any offense to this, please. don't vote unless you know the candidate you are voting for. and i agree mccain is trying hard to appeal to the younger generations and SNL kinda made him look like a dork, imo... but he really has no choice but to do things like SNL to try to appeal to different audeinces. the man is so ineloquent, though, i'd probably avoid public showcases like SNL. he just isn't funny.
          Should I fuck you at that not until the ass, inject then tremendously hard bumschen and to the termination in the eyes yes?

          Comment

          • thesightless
            Someone will marry me. Hell Yeah!
            • Jun 2004
            • 13567

            #6
            Re: McCain is Doomed

            its a shame this country is now voting for the best speech and debate skills instead of values, ideas, plans etc./
            your life is an occasion, rise to it.

            Join My Chant. new mix. april 09. dirty fuck house.
            download that. deep shit listed there

            my dick is its own superhero.

            Comment

            • shosh
              Banned
              • Jun 2004
              • 4668

              #7
              Re: McCain is Doomed

              Comment

              • toasty
                Sir Toastiness
                • Jun 2004
                • 6585

                #8
                Re: McCain is Doomed

                Originally posted by shosh
                that's awesome!

                Comment

                • toasty
                  Sir Toastiness
                  • Jun 2004
                  • 6585

                  #9
                  Re: McCain is Doomed

                  Originally posted by thesightless
                  its a shame this country is now voting for the best speech and debate skills instead of values, ideas, plans etc./
                  You know, difficult though it may be to believe, some people do in fact vote for Obama/McCain/whomever because they like what they have to say, not just how they say it. The reality is that most McCain voters are Republican, and most Obama voters are Democrats. Obama's base is not made up of neocons that are wowed by his oratory skills any more than McCain's voters are liberal hippies that love his folksy way at a town hall meeting.

                  Comment

                  • day_for_night
                    Are you Kidding me??
                    • Jun 2004
                    • 4127

                    #10
                    Re: McCain is Doomed

                    if people in the states voted based on speech and debate skills, george w bush would have never, ever been elected. ever.

                    Comment

                    • thesightless
                      Someone will marry me. Hell Yeah!
                      • Jun 2004
                      • 13567

                      #11
                      Re: McCain is Doomed

                      Originally posted by day_for_night
                      if people in the states voted based on speech and debate skills, george w bush would have never, ever been elected. ever.


                      i attribute his re-election to the south and middle america.
                      your life is an occasion, rise to it.

                      Join My Chant. new mix. april 09. dirty fuck house.
                      download that. deep shit listed there

                      my dick is its own superhero.

                      Comment

                      • Jenks
                        I'm kind of a big deal.
                        • Jun 2004
                        • 10250

                        #12
                        Re: McCain is Doomed

                        this is awesome:



                        Breaking news, political news, and investigative news reporting from Raw Story's team of journalists and prize-winning investigators.

                        Comment

                        • emuler
                          I'm Ignorant.... so sue me!!
                          • May 2007
                          • 469

                          #13
                          Re: McCain is Doomed

                          so american people are making sense... cool

                          Comment

                          • FM
                            Wooooooo!
                            • Jun 2004
                            • 5361

                            #14
                            Re: McCain is Doomed

                            Originally posted by shosh
                            Ric Flair for president baby!

                            WOOOOOOOO!
                            FM

                            "Nowadays everyone is a fucking DJ." - Jack Dangers

                            What record did you loose your virginity to?
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                            • toasty
                              Sir Toastiness
                              • Jun 2004
                              • 6585

                              #15
                              Re: McCain is Doomed

                              Originally posted by Jenks
                              nsfw, from the folks that brought you the John McCain version of Will.I.Am's "Yes We Can" Video

                              [YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euu_DMhsXQo[/YOUTUBE]

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