Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

@ rich, again, this is not a cash give away. it is a line of credit and assumption of distressed debt from demanding investors to parties willing to take 90 on the dollar or a dollar on dollar over an extended period of tiem. the bill is a shiting of a derivitve (bonds) to a party that has all the reason to ensure that all parties, (debtor and creditor) has the long term security, even if it takes a longer period of -repayment.

the money leant to the banks to sure up, will be re-payed at a cheap rate, frankly less than the imputed interest / COLA % that would normally be paid.

basic example. if you take a 300K mortgage out @ 6% fixed 30 years, you actually end up paying back $674,514.by the end of term barring any extra principle repayment done at an earlier point of term(like paying biweekly on your mortgage, principle is paid down before the interest is computed on the 25th or 27th of the month like north american and european banks do).

disregarding all number crunching and morals.. to give the true impact of how big this really is...

the only time john mccain or barak obama were mentioned on the news today were thier statements about this... and keep in mind we have,what, 4 weeks till the election ? says a lot when the US presidential race isnt even news.

[Miroslav]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

That Miron article is perhaps the best criticism of the bailout I have read to date. I think he raises a lot of valid points. It all comes down to how your belief in the speed and magnitude at which the markets can heal on their own and cope with the situation. I agree that it will happen eventually, but I guess I just don't share his optimism. I do align with him in principle in the sense that any intervention should be as little as possible in order to keep the wheels on the bus - and no more. He's right that the government intervention encourages perverse behaviors, and many institutions should be left to fail.

In other news, this is now the biggest one-day point drop in history.

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

In as close an agreement with his principle as possible, I do believe that any intervention should be as little as possible in order to keep the wheels on the bus - and no more. He's right that the government intervention will produce problems, and many institutions should be left to fail.

can someone tell that to the 100 members of congress please? that is why this bill is stalling and the markets are dumping. watch the foreign markets in asia in a few hours when they re-open. signs will be there on how the euro and US markets will move. not to mention they dont plan on meeting tomorrow... fucking asleep at the helm.

[88Mariner]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

That Miron article is perhaps the best criticism of the bailout I have read to date. I think he raises a lot of valid points. It all comes down to how your belief in the speed and magnitude at which the markets can heal on their own and cope with the situation. I agree that it will happen eventually, but I guess I just don't share his optimism. I do align with him in principle in the sense that any intervention should be as little as possible in order to keep the wheels on the bus - and no more. He's right that the government intervention encourages perverse behaviors, and many institutions should be left to fail.

In other news, this is now the biggest one-day point drop in history.

i think a 200 billion dollar bill is sufficient. i would also start cutting the goddamn spending, too.

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

another thing that isnt being expressed clearly, the bill is approved for 700 as a cap. that doesnt mean they will use it all, also, it can and should be re-couped upon the completion of the debt contracts, and could only end up costing a fraction of its investment in the debts. again, no one outside of the financial sector is expressing this sentiment at all. this is not a cash give away. it is a very cheap loan with a large principle. it will be acting like a reverse bond that the govt issues. except they are financing as opposed to the public.

if the markets get the cash, and rebound, it could be resoved in under two years. they can assume the good perfomance debt, let the gov;t sit on the defulting, let the govt work with the debtors, and get the money back in teh long run.

[shosh]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

another thing that isnt being expressed clearly, the bill is approved for 700 as a cap. that doesnt mean they will use it all, also, it can and should be re-couped upon the completion of the debt contracts, and could only end up costing a fraction of its investment in the debts. again, no one outside of the financial sector is expressing this sentiment at all. this is not a cash give away. it is a very cheap loan with a large principle. it will be acting like a reverse bond that the govt issues. except they are financing as opposed to the public.

if the markets get the cash, and rebound, it could be resoved in under two years. they can assume the good perfomance debt, let the gov;t sit on the defulting, let the govt work with the debtors, and get the money back in teh long run.

i pretty much agree with you on every single point in this thread. i think it's retarded that we have politicians discussing the fix of this economic breakdown -> wtf do they know about economy? all they care about is making their constituents happy.
i've also heard comments expressed that the normal everyday joe opposes the "Bailout" bill. well duh, they dont fuckin understand what it means and all they hear from the media is that it's a bailout and the banks are getting our tax money.
tbh i'd rather have the govt give inject our money into our economy than send it out to other countries in the form of aid or even war shit.
right now is not the time to sit around and point fingers. thats what everyone is doing and even today, after the bill failed, thats what theyre talking about: pointing fingers instead of sitting down and discussing what to do. yes, i'd rather have them use our tax money to help fix this rather than leave it be and get even deeper in shit.

[hobbes2oo]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

Can you MS financial experts help me with this analogy? If I am at the Luxor casino playing blackjack and there is a high-roller that just lost 500K at the craps table. I am supposed to give this high-roller some of my money so he can continue playing? If there are some banks/investment companies/hedge funds that made some risky bets and lost, why not just let them fail? Sometimes when fighting wildfires the firefighters will let the fire burn itself out, can't the same be done here?

Even if $700 billion is not used, new regulation might be passed to prevent future failures. Why not let the forest burn to clear out the problem and regrow the financial forest from the ground up?

[Miroslav]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

Can you MS financial experts help me with this analogy? If I am at the Luxor casino playing blackjack and there is a high-roller that just lost 500K at the craps table. I am supposed to give this high-roller some of my money so he can continue playing? If there are some banks/investment companies/hedge funds that made some risky bets and lost, why not just let them fail? Sometimes when fighting wildfires the firefighters will let the fire burn itself out, can't the same be done here?

"MS financial expert"?? Ohhhh ok then, I'll bite!

What the high-roller didn't tell you before he gambled and lost was that it wasn't just his own money; he got your account number and "borrowed" all of your money, too - primarily in the form of the present value of a future cash flows you could reasonably have expected to receive from a healthy and growing economy, which you will now forego. Oh, and then he borrowed some more for good measure and somehow put you down as a co-signer on the loan (Merry Christmas!).

If you want to see any portion of your money again, your best chance to work with him in some way to try to get it back. You can shoot him in the head and leave him for dead, if it makes you feel better...but then you lose everything, too - and are stuck with the bill.

In a nutshell, you do not appreciate the extent to which your fate is tied to that of the "high-roller". It sucks, but that's basically how it works.

[hobbes2oo]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

So we are going to have to wait until thursday at the earliest before a new plan is proposed. Oh well, at least I don't have a ARM mortgage.

[asdf_admin]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

Armageddon here we come.

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

miroslav, you are saying it wrong way as no one truly seems to understand how this works. that analogy is faulted at its core.

the high roller is a broker in this sense.

tying the banks to the high roller is wrong at intro.

there is no gambling on stocks here. the defaulting loans are not variable in nature. yes, some defult, but by breaking contract.

what essentially happened here, is that the atm(the banking system) where the high roller(the bond securitizers) took his money from, had its bank (the people) take the money out while he was playing at the table, using the atm card as collateral.

there is no gamble here. not at all. the gamble is the risk of default on the loans that were securitized into the bonds that defaulted (less than 1%) and the public ripped the footing away from the banks because of stupidity, and media disambiguities

again to give a better analogy... remember the savings and loans failures so greatly presented in "its a wonderful life'? well, instead of running to the local S&L, we ran to the market. and instead of taking it from the safe , we took it from the stock. the stock was/is the safe when you operate on a global scale. both irrational movements based on the lack of understanding of the financial system at the time. the money is in the homes that are collateralized against the loans. technically we could have seized all the homes, but foreclosure laws combined with simple human decency prevent that. if every bank seized every home tied to a defaulted loan, we would be putting a lot of people on the street we didnt have to.(keep in mind the scale: roughly 200 million people owning and/or living in homes tied to defaulting loans, and defaulting does not mean stop payment, it means late or one missed)

frankly, these analogies to a "high rolling gambler" are so off base and dead wrong at their basis it is confusing people. only it seems that the stupid people are forcing this into the ears of the people who are even more stupid.

the dumbest part about it all, is those opinions that are saying "fuck em" are the same people who bitch about the wars, well frankly, the failure of the financial system will lead to a war that no one outside of the living survivors of world war 1 and 2 have seen. and honestly, it will be even worse, because along with the failure of the financial systems, the commoditeis (read:food, power, water, livestock) will fail too and become the core of the reason for war.

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

i posted this in asdf's other thread when he was busting my balls, but tp prove a point on why we cant do this.

the change you think of will lead to more deaths than ww2 and ww1 combined. complete and utter chaos. war on the global scale, and not the US type war where we warn them and act as humane as possible. war on the level of the nazi's and the crusades vs the islamic expansion into the western end of the middle east/eastern europe. complete and utter disregard for life, power grab after power grab. innocents dying by the millions. loss of all vital necessities including food and water. shutdown of all global trade, not only money, but previously mentioned food and water. think of what would happen to africa and middle east if they lost access to the basic commodities like livestock, grain, wheat, fruits. if you dont live on a coastal region, say goodbye to fish. you can also count on the shutdown of utilities, and i do beleive it gets pretty cold in oregon around january. let alone the rockies, canada, russia, etc. think of just the basic things like how many people would die in the summer months without electricty and water, you can count on anyone over 65 who isnt in great health dying. denial of medications because they have to be diverted to teh military, like steel was in the 40's etc etc

and dont think for a minute that if it truly hit that scale, the progressed nations, and the middle eastern nutballs would hold back on things like anthrax, mustard gas, and the shit they dont even tell us about.

i.e. someone better step the fuck up, and the only groups on the stairs to the podium are the US and chinese governments.

[thesightless]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

If you want to see any portion of your money again, your best chance to work with him in some way to try to get it back. You can shoot him in the head and leave him for dead, if it makes you feel better...but then you lose everything, too - and are stuck with the bill.
.

let me finish that statement

..stuck with the bill, out of a job in a few months, kicked out of your home a few months after, run out of food for yourself, your family, your kids get sick and you cant afford the medicine available, not to mention the drug makers cant afford to make it anymore, you live in your parked car because you cant afford the already rationed gas, and then have to hide when massive wars break out because suddenly there is no oil or food flowing aorund the globe. then you wake up one january morning to find your wife and kids have frozen to death sittign beside you.....


again this is not happening tomorrow, but the upcoming week will dictate what path the world takes for the next few years irregardless if mccain or obama win.

once more to hammer it in... playing ht repeater here...

does it hit you that the US presidential election was not mentioned ONCE today, even though it goes down in 4 weeks. the only time JCM or BObama were mentioned on any news station was when the news read thier statements about THIS> and outside of GOD, is there a more important position on the planet?????

[Huggie Smiles]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

I dont know enough about it - but lots of well educated people are raising concerns

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1845209,00.html?cnn=yes

[phuck'm-up]

Re: Bush's $700,000,000,000 Bailout!!!

let me finish that statement

..stuck with the bill, out of a job in a few months, kicked out of your home a few months after, run out of food for yourself, your family, your kids get sick and you cant afford the medicine available, not to mention the drug makers cant afford to make it anymore, you live in your parked car because you cant afford the already rationed gas, and then have to hide when massive wars break out because suddenly there is no oil or food flowing aorund the globe. then you wake up one january morning to find your wife and kids have frozen to death sittign beside you.....

but a likely scenario.....I keep telling all my friends that they need a plan. It is better to have a plan and not ever have the need for it. Than to be with out what is necessary for survival if in fact it does pop off.

Something is about to happen!

When the power goes out and then oil stops flowing you got three days. Three days and you better be in the country WITH PEOPLE YOU TRUST. The first day will be the denial day for most people and they will do nothing, but trust me this is the day you need to leave. ( the plan ) Second day is awareness day. When the people become aware that something is wrong. This is also the day that some of the people left in the city are aware that you are vulnerable and without help from the police or anyone else for that matter. If you have not left yet this is the time. Do not go to the places the news and the fliers tell you too. ( again this is where the plan comes in. ) Day three is when people will start taking shit. All hell will break loose by the afternoon of day three.

Hurricane Katrina......Great example but on a smaller scale.


777 point drop why 777 not 776