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If it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. Check this out regarding early voting:
Point is, early voting is underway in a number of states, including swing states McCain absolutely has to win like Ohio and (in the unusual role of swing state) North Carolina. If McCain has something sitting in his back pocket, he cannot afford to allow votes to be cast in those states without unfurling it first. Ergo, no October Surprise forthcoming, because we would have already seen it if it were.
My opinion, FWIW.
So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole:
Code:
... Poll % Voted Non-Early State Date Early Early Voters Likely Voters ==================================================== NM 10/13 10% Obama +23% Obama +6% OH 10/13 12% Obama +18% Obama +4% GA 10/12 18% Obama +6% McCain +11% IA 10/9 14% Obama +34% Obama +10% NC 10/6 5% Obama +34% McCain +5%
Point is, early voting is underway in a number of states, including swing states McCain absolutely has to win like Ohio and (in the unusual role of swing state) North Carolina. If McCain has something sitting in his back pocket, he cannot afford to allow votes to be cast in those states without unfurling it first. Ergo, no October Surprise forthcoming, because we would have already seen it if it were.
My opinion, FWIW.
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