Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

**davetlv** · January 8, 2009, 09:07:57 AM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Originally posted by davetlv

Does anything actually happen in the south of your country without the express approval of Hizbollah?

Also, do you not think, in light of the French-Egyptian brokered talks due to take place today in Cairo, that an attack on our northern cities from Lebanon will do nothing to bring about a cease fire? And if its discovered that Hizbollah either approved of or fired the rockets themselves, will you hold them responsible for any retaliatory action taken by my country?

Shiva

Hope you don't mind me re-posting my previous comments - in addition, let me say, like you I pray that a second front does not open up in the our north/your south - as this is the last thing both our citizens need.

If this case was an "isolated" incident, then so be it - what however worries me more, is that this incident took place with the express consent of Hizbollah and their sponsors; if that is the case, I seriously think we're all in trouble.

**Shiva** · January 8, 2009, 09:29:18 AM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Ok, now this is a typical example of how Lebanon gets used by others to fight their wars, yet another rape:

It is understandable that, due to the massacre going on in Gaza, the Palestinians chose to open a second front, it is a strategic and a logic move.
But what is not acceptable is for those Palestinian groups, mainly Hamas, to choose a foreign land from which they launch their attacks on Israel. The Palestinians should have opened a second front from within THEIR territories, Cizjordania!
Obviously, the Palestinians thought it smartly, they wish to involve hizballah into the conflict and therefore strengthen their fighting positions.

We, as Lebanese, do NOT APPROVE in ANY WAY or FORM, for others to pull us into their wars. We are sick and tired of being violated and involved into causes that are not ours. If you ask me, the UN, the Lebanese Army AND hizballah should stop those Palestinian groups from acting freely before things go too far.

Dave, although hizballah controls most of Southern Lebanon, the landscape is very similar to Israel and Palestine...It is filled with tunnels and underground passages that are not always easy to spot, discover or control. We don't know yet if hizballah had authorized such an attack, but what I can tell you is that the Lebanese people are against ANY involvement of hizballah, or any other Lebanese groups, in the israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Hizballah declared it will not get involved in the conflict unilaterally, and we (Lebanese) are expecting hizballah to help appease the situation instead of inflaming it.

The Lebanese army and the U.N. forces have been put on highest alert after this incident: Those groups firing rockets onto Israel will/should be delt with swiftly before the situation goes out of hand.

The Lebanese are seeking peace, a just and durable one. We are business people is search of properity and growth... We are sick of wars!!!

I truely hope our both countries, Lebanon and Israel will act in a mature way, coz this time, if a war breaks up involving Lebanon....the only thing I can say is:

MAY GOD HELP US ALL COZ NOBODY WILL BE SPARED...

**Shiva** · January 8, 2009, 11:00:38 AM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Another reason why it is not in the interest of hizballah to increase the tension at the southern border: upcoming legislative elections in Lebanon.

Hizballah and its allies, just like all the other political parties, are working hard to secure their victory at the upcoming local legislative elections (in 5 months). In order to win this elections, stability is required so that people can vote, and the voting scruteny goes smoothly.

**runningman** · January 8, 2009, 12:49:49 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

I new this was going to happen. Syria will be next to get to Iran. Lebanon I feel will take massive punishment because of Hizballah. Israel core value this mission is to rid the region of all terrorists. Not just stop the rockets from Gaza. With Iran almost able to make nuclear weapons the US and Israel are waiting with open arms to fight Iran.

Again just my opinion.

**Shiva** · January 8, 2009, 12:55:44 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

^ There is a point in that. No doubt that as usual, Lebanon would end up paying an enormous price...

yes, it is common knowledge that Hizballah is being financed by the petrodollars of Iran....the scenario is VERY probable.

However, curious about 1 point:
Iran NEEDS to have the barrel of oil to be higher than 60$/barrel or it becomes a very serious national security issue to the nation.

Isn't it weird, or a coincidence, that the current price of the oil is not able to reach the 60$/barrel? Everyday that passes with the oil price below the 60$ is causing serious damages to Iran...

Any perspective anyone?

**runningman** · January 8, 2009, 01:02:27 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

that happened so Russia and Iran won't be able to finance a massive war.. that is why Russia just turned off the gas to Ukraine. Russia thought they were a major player with oil at $140/barrel now at $43 they aren't so confident.

think of it as the game RISK.

First you surround it (Iraq, Pakistan, Aghanistan for troops and planes to re-fuel) then you make it so they don't have sufficient funds to fight.

**Shiva** · January 8, 2009, 02:50:13 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Just like I mentioned in my previous post:
The rocket launch on Israel was not Lebanese. The gov has opened a thorough investigation to catch the people that did that. Both the Lebanese army and the U.N. peacekeepers have been put on high alert in order to not have this episode repeated.

This is a trap to involve Lebanon in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Lebanon doesn't want an escalation of the situation, and when I say Lebanon I mean hizballah as well since it is part of the gov now.

The Palestinians of Lebanon are denying every involvement in this attack. However, some fingers are being pointed at Hamas-Syria, based in Damascus.

**davetlv** · January 8, 2009, 03:16:43 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Originally posted by Shiva

This is a trap to involve Lebanon in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Lebanon doesn't want an escalation of the situation, and when I say Lebanon I mean hizballah as well since it is part of the gov now.

I certainly agree with you that its a ploy to involve Lebanon and her people in a conflict which neither they nor we want.

I do however disagree with you apparent belief that Hizbollah, just because they are part of the government, don't want to embroil both our countries in another pointless war, where Israeli and Lebanese civilians are the hardest hit.

This regarding brave Nasrallah recent speech from the comfort of his bunker:

TEHRAN - Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah declared on Wednesday that "all possibilities" are open against the Zionist regime and warned that Israel's 2006 war with Hezbollah fighters would resemble "a walk in the park" in the event of a new war.

"We have to act as though all possibilities are real and open (against Israel) and we must always be ready for any eventuality," Nasrallah warned.

Addressing tens of thousands of supporters via video link on the occasion of Ashura, he said that the 2006 war would be nothing compared to what awaits the regime if it opens a second front in the north.

"I say to (Israeli Prime Minister Ehud) Olmert, the loser, the vanquished in Lebanon that 'you cannot overcome Hamas or Hezbollah'," AFP quoted Nasrallah as telling well-wishers.

"Your 2006 war will be but a walk in the park compared to what we have prepared for you in the event of a new offensive.

"We are ready to sacrifice our souls, our brothers and sisters, our children, our loved ones for what we believe in," he added. "We will not abandon the fight or our weapons."
Source

This after Olmert said at the start that Israel has no intention of opening up a second front. The language Nasrallah uses is clearly used at trying to get a response; in addition to the fact that his paymasters in Iran are also hamas's paymasters right now,l i really don't believe any rockets were fired WITHOUT his knowledge.

That said, I pray for both our people that we don't raise to the bait.

**Shiva** · January 8, 2009, 04:01:00 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

In his last speech he practically accused Egypt to be a "conspirator" of the Israeli crime against the Palestinians because Egypt is not opening the Ra-Fah passage.

The only thing I can say now is that hizballah cannot attack alone, or unilaterally, without the approval of all the Lebanese parties, he can't act unilaterally as per Doha agreement. He can't act like he did in 2006: the decision whether to take a country to peace or war doesn't/shouldn't lie only on 1 person or 1 party. And in Lebanon not everybody wants war, actually the opposite, the Lebanese are really sick of wars, just as I explained earlier.
He wants to make this speech and we cannot stop him from talking or say whatever he wants.
But between a speech and the act there might be an ocean.

The rocket attack should not happen again, the gov is making sure of that. I truly pray it wont go further...

Edit, concerning the text:
- In case of a new war we all know it will be very nasty...nothing new
- Concerning the hizballah's military and arsenal, yes they are much more powerful than in 2006. Israel thought of weakening hizballah but it backfired, now it is estimated that they are twice as powerful as 2006...nothing new
- Concerning their readiness "to sacrifice their souls", well that doesn't need any comment, I think it is something pretty common in the Arab world....nothing new.

What did u expect Nasrallah to say nice words towards Israel? lol

**davetlv** · January 8, 2009, 08:12:59 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Shiva

Just found this - a bit long, but a good read.

Assad, Jalili, PFLP-GC, and the Rockets from Lebanon

As expected, a few rockets were lobbed into Israel today. While no one has claimed responsibility, it's fairly clear a- who's behind it, and b- why.

The threat of rockets from Lebanon was delivered early on in the fighting when the Lebanese Armed Forces dismantled eight Katyusha rockets set for firing into Israel. The Lebanese authorities at the time openly suspected this to be the work of the Syrian proxy, the Damascus-based PFLP-GC.

Then, as the fighting went on in Gaza, the Iranians sent a delegate to Damascus, Saeed Jalili, to discuss the Gaza situation with the Syrians and the Palesitinian factions based there. After the meeting, the PFLP-GC's secretary general, Ahmad Jibril, declared that "new military fronts will be opened and the circle of war will be widened as long as the Rafah crossing remained closed."

Three days later, the PFLP-GC is once again suspected of being behind the rockets fired into Israel today. The PFLP-GC is even threatening targeting US interests (one more reason why Syria will remain on the US list of state sponsors of terror). Hezbollah, who are denying any responsibility, naturally knew about it and turned a blind eye, in order to conveniently maintain deniability, but also to try and avoid a massive Israeli retaliation, which speaks to the success of Israeli deterrence post-UNSCR 1701.

So why did they fire the rockets, and why now?

The Israeli operation in Gaza has clearly dealt a massive, crippling blow to Hamas. There was therefore a need to prevent a humiliating defeat for the Iranian-led "resistance" axis.

Nevertheless, opening a full-blown new front in Lebanon is not as easy as one might think given the known Israeli response, recently articulated as the "Dahiyeh doctrine."

So, as Jonathan Spyer wrote today in the Jerusalem Post, the rocket fire from Lebanon "is the first indication that Hamas's friends may be considering intervention to help their ally in its predicament. The performance of Hamas in the conflict so far gives little cause for celebration in the Iranian-led camp."

But there's another angle here as well. Hamas's humiliation (and that of its backers Syria and Iran) was going to be compounded by the fact that Egypt was still the main broker of any new security arrangement, a fact that Hamas couldn't get around -- despite all the anti-Egypt rhetoric emanating from Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. Since one central goal of the war (i.e. of Syria and Iran) was the undermining of the Egyptian position, this would've been tantamount to adding insult to injury.

Here's where the "engagement" fetishists should pay attention. Into this complex picture -- with the regional balance of power in play -- stepped the freelance crisis solver du jour, the international man of mystery, Nicolas Sarkozy.

In a particularly ill-advised move, Sarkozy went to Syria and asked Assad -- a mere subsidiary of the Iranian campaign -- to intervene with Hamas. Sensing the possibility of freely-donated leverage, Assad did the obvious and came out fully in support of Hamas, and declared that if France would ensure that all of Hamas's demands were secured (which would be an existential threat to Egypt), including lifting the siege and opening the Rafah crossing (i.e., affording Hamas the charade of declaring "victory" for the "resistance" axis), he would gladly "see what he could do" with Hamas.

Therefore, it was no surprise that the Damascus-based Hamas rejected the proposal put forward by Egypt (with the French tagging along). Not only would the humiliation be hard to swallow, but since Sarkozy gave Bashar an opening, then it would behoove the Syrian terror-sponsoring dictator to try and up the price and see what more he can get from the hapless French. What better way to set the stage for the incoming Obama administration, and screw the US-allied Egyptians?

A day later, the PFLP-GC fires rockets from Lebanon and even threatened to target US interests!

Bashar, therefore, is trying, in typical Syrian fashion, to opportunistically scavenge some gains by selling his usual snake oil. In other words, once again badly-conceived flashiness sold as "diplomacy" results not in security and stability, but more conflagration and the potential sabotage of allies. There's no "regional" framework here. There's an Israeli and an Egyptian framework involving the PA -- period. Martin Kramer explained it well:

It is the PA, for example, which could be reinserted at the Egyptian border crossing at Rafah (as already demanded by Egypt).
...
Legitimation of Hamas could seal the fate of the "peace process," and give "resistance" the reputation of a truly winning strategy. The United States will have to assure that all contact with Hamas runs exclusively through the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Turks, and above all, the PA. Europe and the United States must stay well out of the diplomatic reach of Hamas, until it meets the Quartet conditions�a highly improbable prospect.

This also means that once more, the advice of the ICG should be safely discarded in the nearest possible trash bin.

Bashar is working for the diametrically opposite objective, and seeking the full legitimization of Hamas and the undermining of Egypt, which has been crucial in blocking the opening of the Rafah crossing, and his introduction as the sole interlocutor. He called the continuing closure of these crossings an act of war, thereby justifying and supporting Hamas's torpedoing of the truce (little surprise there, as it was all coordinated with the Iranians, including the Bahrain plot which I discussed here).

In fact, Walid Moallem recently revealed that Syria had been using its "indirect talks with Israel" fiasco in order to protect Hamas and allow it to build up its (Iranian and Syrian-supplied military capabilities). Moallem said that the Syrians had conditioned these bogus talks on Israel not launching attacks on Hamas. In other words, it's the vintage Syria policy of talking while simultaneously supporting terrorist groups, and using the talks to protect terrorists groups and prevent being held accountable for supporting them.

The Israeli response to the Katyushas from Lebanon has so far been limited to a strike against the launching site. The Israelis had been expecting, since the eight Katyushas were dismantled earlier in the fighting, the possibility that some Palestinian faction could fire from Lebanon, with Hezbollah's knowledge and acquiescence. As long as Iran and Hezbollah don't escalate further, the IDF might not either, while keeping an eye on the northern border, especially as Hamas continues to get pummeled to the ground.

In the meantime, what the US and its allies should ensure is that Syria is not afforded an opportunity to sell useless snake oil and embezzle gains from this episode in which it's been nothing but a supporter of Hamas and the Iranian campaign against US allies, Israel and Egypt.

Source

**runningman** · January 8, 2009, 08:40:37 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

see now we are getting Syria and Iran into the mix.

**davetlv** · January 8, 2009, 09:27:42 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Are you so naive to think that Hamas operate independently?

Those of us who live in the region, and I think Shiva won't mind me putting words in her mouth here, realise who the funders and backers of terrorism in the region are - both Hizbollah and Hamas are Iranian, and to a lesser extent, Syrian proxies - this isn't some bullshit we've plucked out of the air, but fact.

Hezbollah, Hamas go hand in hand with Syria and Iran - don't believe me, I'm sure Shiva has stories about the Lebanese civil war and its Syrian occupation that would make your hair curl.

**thesightless** · January 8, 2009, 09:37:52 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

not even for untiy, but for peace, lebanon should being the pain on these twits. go in, wreck them, say "sorry isreal, but we got em for ya anyway"

ugh, the militant islam and fighting it is a lose lose scenario. these twats just cant accept other religions. fuck em, kill em all, sort em out later.

**Shiva** · January 9, 2009, 01:53:13 PM

Re: Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Tnx for info Dave.

I think everybody knows Iran is financing Syria & Hamas...

The thing is that I started trying to understand this country and this situation after the 2006 war. I haven't experienced any war before that. My hubby is half Lebanese and he lived till the mid 80s in Lebanon, so he experienced part of the civil war.
Since 2006 I have been reading about the local history, watching documentaries etc etc...It is so complicated to understand all this mess, and so sad to see all that amount of destruction that has been going on here... just crazy!

Bottom line: nobody is innocent, everybody killed!

Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

Palestinian groups open a second front from Southern Lebanon

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