The Depression Has Begun

[runningman]

With 13 US cities reporting unemployment at 15% and 93 other cities at over 10% and now that GM has gone bankrupt it is safe to say that the deression has begun. Remember GM didn't go bankrupt in 1929 so it is also safe to say that this depression is going to be much worse then the crash of 1929.

Everybody hold on tight for the next couple years and ride this bitch out...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobscarreers/15-jobless-in-13-US-cities-Report-/articleshow/4616040.cms

[Jenks]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

[runningman]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

jenks

welcome to reality.

[Jenks]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

at you talking to someone about reality.

[runningman]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

well the figures don't lie do they?

Do you have something productive to say or a blatent attack on me with nothing useful to say?

[Jenks]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

I have nothing to say in this section anymore, im just stopped in for a quick laugh. no worries.

[Miroslav]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

With 13 US cities reporting unemployment at 15% and 93 other cities at over 10% and now that GM has gone bankrupt it is safe to say that the deression has begun.

Actually, no...it isn't safe to say that at all - not if you care to go by the guidelines that real economists use to determine an economic depression. Economists differ on how to define a depression, but no reputable economist in his/her right mind will look at the data you just cited and declare the economy in depression just based on that.

And most commonly used definitions only work in hindsight because they rely on consecutive quarter real GDP data to assess severity and length of economic downturn. They also coincide the start of downturn of economic activity (i.e., when a recession began). We've been in recession for like a year now, so it is illogical under any case for you to claim now that "the depression has begun".

We may be in an economic depression, but if we are then (1) it has already begun a long time ago, and (2) we won't really know until after the fact.

[runningman]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

Real Economists didn't see this coming why would I rely on them for future information. They don't have a clue what is coming.

Those numbers are good enough for me and the millions unemployed.

At what % or catastrophe would you say Miro that we are in a depression?? What are you looking for?

[floridaorange]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

consecutive quarter real GDP data to assess severity and length of economic downturn. They also coincide the start of downturn of economic activity (i.e., when a recession began). We've been in recession for like a year now, so it is illogical under any case for you to claim now that "the depression has begun".
.

[Miroslav]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

Real Economists didn't see this coming why would I rely on them for future information. They don't have a clue what is coming.

Hey, if you want to make up your own creative definition of an economic depression that suits just your preference...then feel free! not gonna argue with you about that.

Those numbers are good enough for me and the millions unemployed.

The point wasn't whether things were bad for many people. The point was whether we're in an economic depression. That ends up being more of an academic debate than a "feels to me like" debate. From a "feels like" perspective, it doesn't really matter what you call it; either way, you're out of work.

At what % or catastrophe would you say Miro that we are in a depression?? What are you looking for?

As I said, even economists vary on the precise definition of a depression vs. a recession. The NBER doesn't even officially make the distinction in its data. That said, basically everything you'll read in a textbook or in publicly available literature will be around one or both of the following:

1. The severity of the downturn, measured in terms of real GDP decline.
2. The length of the downturn, measured in terms of quarters of real GDP decline.

A few novel economists might also argue for the cause of the downturn as being part of the definition inasmuch as a depression should call for different policy responses than a recession.

A commonly accepted definition (but by no means 100% agreed upon by all economists) is a decline in real GDP of more than 10% or 12+ quarters of real GDP decline. I'd buy that.

But you can't really do it just on the basis of unemployment rate, because productivity is drastically different today than it was in the 1930s; hence, 15% unemployment today does not necessarily have all of the the same economic impacts as 15% unemployment did in the 1930s.

[runningman]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

You are right 15% unemployment today has an even greater impact then of TGD. 15% today--- kids spoiled with XBox's Wii's and luxuries that the average US citizen is not going to see anymore. The division between the rich and the poor is happening at an astounding rate. The poor are getting much poorer and the rich are getting much richer. The middle class is waving the white flag and just begging for this to stop that is why the UAW and CAW workers are agreeing to making only $14/hr now instead of $28/hr.

Also it sounds pretty stupid to me to wait for 4 years after and say "Ya it was a depression near the end of 2009." When it is already 2013. I guess we will have to wait until then to finish the debate.

[Cj Tari]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

its all a conspiracy, just like climate change, it doesnt exist.........

[superdave]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

The problem with economic cycles is that you don't even know exactly where you're at in the cycle until later. I've seen different stories saying things are getting better and other stories say that things won't get better for awhile.

Definitely a recession right now. Unemployment is way too high and there are loads of banks failing. GM and Chrysler are finished. I've never seen things this bad. On the good side, the market has been doing well recently, but still way down over the past year.

[runningman]

Re: The Depression Has Begun

the market has been doing ok lately only because the US gov't has been pumping trillions of dollars into circulation causing a new bubble. When that bubble bursts we will see what happens.

[Jenks]

Re: The Depression Has Begun