Facebook

[floridaorange]

"Facebook is going be the most valuable company in the world within 24 months," predicts NYU business professor Scott Galloway. Noting that many young people already use Facebook like an online operating system, Galloway argues the social media giant may represent the evolution of online life: "If Facebook gets to forty or fifty percent of the internet, then effectively Facebook has become the internet."

complete video

[feather]

Re: Facebook

Smartest thing Facebook did was launching Connect and the Like buttons.

[88Mariner]

Re: Facebook

facebook produces no real value (as opposed to, say google, which provides TONS of value). it's already sold out (i.e. non-exclusive anymore). unless zuck sells each profile as a piece of property to data mining companies. people will split off once that happens, and facebook will eventually plateau. facebook may continue to grow over the coming years as it's market with adolescents grows to the point that even children will have profiles set up by their yuppie parents, and that kids grandparents will have profiles (and their friends at the sizzler or country cracker barrel). but i have no doubts that facebook will burn out like the bright shining star that it is and be replaced by something else. i bet 1/6th of the daily growth are troll accounts. i know people that have dozens.


maybe i'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly, but there seems to a growing rejection of facebook. as this guy said, 'people never leave facebook all day.' people are going to see this and i suspect that there will be backlash. kinda like the way mc hammer ended up (absent the bankruptcy).

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/facebook-rogue/

someone will produce the linux-like version of facebook soon enough....


edit: who knows how they compile their user numbers? i'm 100% sure they don't subtract people who close their accounts (like i did recently) because the remnants of my profile sit on some distant server in southern california. but it's a profile nonetheless and it will be counted!

edit2: gonna check out and see what Kurzweil says on the matter

[floridaorange]

Re: Facebook

facebook produces no real value (as opposed to, say google, which provides TONS of value). it's already sold out (i.e. non-exclusive anymore). unless zuck sells each profile as a piece of property to data mining companies. people will split off once that happens, and facebook will eventually plateau. facebook may continue to grow over the coming years as it's market with adolescents grows to the point that even children will have profiles set up by their yuppie parents, and that kids grandparents will have profiles (and their friends at the sizzler or country cracker barrel). but i have no doubts that facebook will burn out like the bright shining star that it is and be replaced by something else. i bet 1/6th of the daily growth are troll accounts. i know people that have dozens.


maybe i'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly, but there seems to a growing rejection of facebook. as this guy said, 'people never leave facebook all day.' people are going to see this and i suspect that there will be backlash. kinda like the way mc hammer ended up (absent the bankruptcy).

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/05/facebook-rogue/

someone will produce the linux-like version of facebook soon enough....


edit: who knows how they compile their user numbers? i'm 100% sure they don't subtract people who close their accounts (like i did recently) because the remnants of my profile sit on some distant server in southern california. but it's a profile nonetheless and it will be counted!

edit2: gonna check out and see what Kurzweil says on the matter

I dunno man, guess we'll just have to wait and see. I think it's growth is interesting per his comment about the law of big numbers, which isn't applying for some reason to Facebook, which has continued to grow. I think it will continue to grow and people will continue to rely on websites less and less. Who know's for sure, it's all speculative of course.

[feather]

Re: Facebook

Real value to users would be straight forward and obvious since people use it every day.

facebook doesn't have a product that generates value like Google and Google Ads, etc. That's the biggest hurdle for facebook, and the question tech and advertising pundits are asking. And we can probably trust facebook not to do something as crass as selling its data, so whatever it comes up with will have to be more subtle or finessed.

So whatever value it has, is perceived. Just like a lot of brands. But from a customer relationship or direct marketing perspective, facebook IS a gold mine. There is simply nothing like the reach and depth that facebook has. And its ubiquity (which is why I think launching Connect and Like is the smartest thing they did). Given the current size of facebook, you can bet that once it works out how to monetise itself, it'll explode, in a good way. That's what everyone is betting on, hence its valuation at 50 billion and the 500 mil from Goldman Sachs.

I think while growing is what every business wants, given the size of facebook which is already huge (and Connect and Like helps to drive growth organically without resorting to recruitment), monetising that gold mine should be the priority. We can probably assume that something else will come along, but that something else will be faced with a similar problem, how do you make money out of open social networks, keyword being 'open,' because China has turned closed social networks into money spinners.

Becoming less and less reliant on websites certainly seems to be the trend (another trend I forsee/saw are mobile apps replacing websites for functionality, such as shopping with Amazon and ebay apps). Standalone websites are useless besides being a holder for information or a presence online. But that's where Connect comes in. Websites can become relevant to your social network with Connect.

But if people are becoming less reliant on websites, then the relevance of facebook could or should rise proportionately. Already some people are using Twitter as a news source, facebook could and should be the new PR/help line/marketing channel. The knee-jerk reaction would be disgust—no one wants to be marketed to when they're at the pub or water cooler analog of facebook. But this is why it's so hard to monetise facebook and why finesse is required.

Besides outright advertising, I think that's where facebook's value is. Become the intermediary between brands and consumers by providing the staff with the know-how and the etiquette, or act as a consultant for these brands (I'm sure they already do).

facebook could become the biggest invisible PR company in the world. Provide a team to familiarise itself with Brand X, help man the Brand X page, talk to consumers, field helpline or any kind of disasters, send out tactical marketing offers ... this team from facebook becomes the voice or personality of Brand X on facebook. Just like the PR department or helpline of any brand. It would make sense for brands to use facebook in such way but not every brand has the time or the inclination to do it itself.

[88Mariner]

Re: Facebook

^ wow. that's a really well thought out point. much appreciated.

if i were running facebook, my biggest concern would be how to achieve those ends without turning people off.

perhaps I read Tipping Point too recently, but a lot of those ideas about when something gets big....and then dies off (recall the explanation about Airwalk shoes in that book), comes to mind.

[tiddles]

Re: Facebook

eh? They brought in 1.8 something billion on their ad platform last year.

Facebook does pretty well on advertising. Since people have no qualms about putting all their info into it, it lets small businesses do cool stuff that they can't do with google: the hair salon that runs an ad before valentine's day targeting 20-35 year old woman in town that are in relationships and offers them a coupon for a pre-valentine hair cut or some shit. You can't do that stuff on adwords.

Open Graph is where it's going to take off. Integrate it with your site and people don't have to bother with signing up for stuff/tracking passwords etc.

[feather]

Re: Facebook

Max Levchin — Google VP of engineering and founder of PayPal and Slide — argues that Facebook will become a serious contender to become one of the more valuable companies in the world if it can “successfully replace core messaging.”

At the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference in San Francisco, Levchin and Benchmark Capital’s Bill Gurley answered questions about “game-changing technology.” During their fireside chat, the moderator raised the question of Facebook’s unprecedented growth and its impact.


“Facebook has all but successfully monopolized White Pages,” Levchin said, explaining that when you want to find and connect with someone, you go to Facebook. Unlike the White Pages though, Facebook also has information on a person’s interests, likes and social graph.


That alone has turned Facebook into a $50 billion company. However, Levchin says that that becoming the repository for personal information could result “in Facebook successfully replacing core messaging.” If it becomes the web’s primary communication platform, it could become one of the more valuable companies in the world.


Levchin quickly stressed that Facebook’s business shouldn’t be confused with demand generation or demand discovery — a.k.a. search, Google’s specialty. The PayPal co-founder says that he’s read that social graph signals have not been particularly effective in optimizing search-related advertising. Benchmark Capital’s Gurley agreed, arguing that social signals might deliver untargeted ads at inappropriate times.


In fact, Levchin argues that Twitter may be a better advertising platform because following a brand or expert on Twitter is more likely to deliver credible information and advice than your friends, who are likely not experts in biking, finance or other subjects. Gurley, on the other hand, believes there may be a middle ground between search and social by bringing together people with similar interests. For instance, a combination of search and social could help fans of biking in the same city find each other and swap advice and stories.


Levchin and Gurley also discussed the issues facing Microsoft, a lumbering tech giant whose core software businesses are being attacked by the likes of Apple, Google and countless startups. “I think it’s a classic problem of having a massive revenue stream,” Levchin said, explaining that companies with giant revenue streams tend to protect their investments rather than innovate and adopt new and risky business models.


At the end of the firside chat, Gurley made the argument that Google’s Android OS is one the most “disruptive moves in the history of business.” Unlike Microsoft and other software makers, Google gives away its software and sometimes even pays companies to use it. Gurley argues that this is a defensive move by Google to protect its search business. Google makes money off advertising in Android searches and wants to make sure its mobile search business interests are protected. The venture capitalist compared Google’s strategy to protecting a castle by charring all surrounding earth in a 250 mile radius, making it impossible for anybody to come near it.

http://mashable.com/2011/02/15/max-levchin-facebook/

[feather]

Re: Facebook

Maybe because you're not real.

[i!!ustrious]

Re: Facebook

a few of us, stepped into their hq, and....

pants got shitteth in..

lo and behold, let it be told;

and so,

we left that filth, festering faggotry --- with gallantry.

lol, norcal.

[i!!ustrious]

Re: Facebook

).)

[ronyyroyals]

Re: Facebook

The Facebook is social media site and it allowed to advertise and marketing purpose any use it. Also the face book provide information to persons and social graphs for you using with chatting. Facebook provide the white page for monopolized.

[feather]

Re: Facebook

This is getting crazy ...

Facebook’s business is growing faster than the company had predicted a few months ago, leading to speculation that its IPO could be in the $100 billion range, according to a report.

The Wall Street Journal, citing people who’ve seen Facebook’s recent financial information, reports [subscription required] that the IPO could happen as early as spring 2012.

One source says the company is on track to earn $2 billion before taxes, depreciation and amortization this year. That figure is higher than the numbers Facebook presented to Goldman Sachs Group and Russian investor Digital Sky Technologies when they invested in Facebook in January.

At that time, Facebook’s shares were at a price that implied a $50 billion valuation. Now, that number could be twice as much, according to this newest report. If that scenario comes to pass, Facebook’s valuation will be higher than the current figures for Hewlett-Packard, Amazon and Cisco Systems.

http://mashable.com/2011/05/02/facebooks-valuation-100-billion/

[Illuminate]

Re: Facebook

Question remains on weather it will sink like Myspace?

[demonAfro]

Re: Facebook

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Spamm to death?